The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission delayed its decision on a bunch of applications for a Bitcoin ETF this week.

Jay Clayton talks Bitcoin ETF with CNBC

Applicants that its most recent deferral affected include WisdomTree, Valkyrie, Invesco, Vaneck and BlackRock Inc.

Still, Jay Clayton – the former Chair of the Securities & Exchange Commission is convinced that approval for the said exchange-traded fund is a matter of “when” and not “if”. On CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, he said:

Bitcoin is not a security. So, I think an approval is inevitable. The dichotomy between a futures product and a cash product can’t go on forever. That’s the path we are on.

At writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is down about 18% versus its year-to-date high in mid-July.

Why is SEC delaying deciding on Bitcoin ETF?

Clayton sees the hype around a Bitcoin ETF as a tell that retail and institutional investors alike want access to the digital asset.

Note that a U.S. court ruled in favour of Grayscale this week in its lawsuit against the SEC (find out more). According to the former head of that government agency:

SEC has been given time by the DC Circuit to reassess and perhaps come up with other reasons. Maybe there will be some but I don’t see those.

A Spot Bitcoin ETF is a big deal as many experts believe it could boost demand for the cryptocurrency which may eventually translate to significant price appreciation.

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Bitcoin has suffered its worst weekly percentage loss since the collapse of FTX.
Some of the factors behind the dip include reports of SpaceX selling its BTC holdings and the Chinese property giant Evergrande bankruptcy filing.
Top prediction markets tokens have maintained a bullish trend amid the crypto meltdown.

In what has caught most crypto investors by surprise, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by 11.2% to about US$26k. Last week has been the worst week for Bitcoin (BTC) since FTX’s demise in November 2022.

The market crash has not only affected BTC, seeing that the rest of the asset class has not fared any better. Ethereum (ETH) fell by approximately 9.5% to $1.7K and Binance-coin (BNB) dropped by about 9.8% to $217, just to mention a few of the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

While most of the top cryptocurrencies experienced a price dip, popular prediction markets tokens like Gnosis (GNO), SX Network (SX), Kleros (PNK), and Augur (REP) registered significant gains. Chancer (CHANCER), a new prediction markets token is also gaining traction as its token presale continues to gain traction.

What caused the crypto market to drop?

The price decrease was caused by a number of causes. They included speculation that SpaceX wrote down the value of its Bitcoin assets, the collapse of the Chinese real estate firm Evergrande, and rising yields in the US.

SpaceX Bitcoin holdings

The Wall Street Journal published a report late last week stating that Elon Musk’s space exploration company SpaceX marked down the value of the Bitcoin it had on its books by US$373 million for the years 2022 and 2021. The report claims that the business also sold a portion of the BTC it had at one point over the previous two years. The WSJ has identified documents that it claims offer uncommon insights into the business’s finances.

However, the WSJ’s assertions cannot be independently verified because SpaceX is a privately held corporation. Musk acknowledged that SpaceX did acquire Bitcoin during a panel appearance in 2021, but it is unclear how much or when the commodity was purchased.

Evergrande bankruptcy 

In a disclosure made over the weekend, the Chinese real estate tycoon Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States. The corporation reportedly took action to secure its assets while still trying to control its creditors.

Before proposing a comprehensive off-shore debt restructuring program in 2021, Evergrande experienced a public meltdown and went into default on its obligations. The business currently seems to be on life support.

Investors are worried that China’s enormous real estate market may become contagious. Country Gardens and other significant developers are not paying their debts either, and the industry—which is thought to account for up to 30% of Chinese GDP—is in serious need of government assistance.

US Treasury yields

US Treasury yields are skyrocketing and pushing away investors from risky markets like the crypto market and toward saving. As the US Federal Reserve gradually increased rates throughout the previous year to reach a target rate of slightly over 5%, bond yields increased.

As strong US economic data keeps coming out, yields have increased this week in anticipation that rate rises will continue. Since 2011, the 30-year US Treasury yield has never been higher. Treasury bonds give a high, secure yield, which is detracting from the value of other asset types like shares and cryptocurrencies.

Gnosis and Augur price prediction

Gnosis has risen by 0.2% while Augur has registered a 1% surge after a bear week. In the past seven days, Gnosis dropped by 8.8% while Augur fell by 11.7%.

Having bounced off the support at $97.60, the Gnosis (GNO) token is expected to test the resistance at $104.75. However, that depends on whether the current daily candlestick closes above the lower band line of the Bollinger Bands indicator.

Augur, on the other hand, seems to have slid into consolidation after erasing most of the gains it made between July 19 and July 20. All eyes are on the support at $0.3246 and the resistance at $2.1844. If the REP price jumps above the upper Bollinger Bands line, it could test the $2.1844 resistance level and if it drops below the lower Bollinger Bands line, it could drop to the support at $0.3246.

The prediction markets tokens including Chancer, are expected to experience significant price gains as popular games including the English Premier League and the American MSL gather steam.

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Bitcoin is still a bull market despite the sharp sell-off in recent weeks, says Scott Melker – Host of “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast.

Melker remains constructive on Bitcoin

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has retreated from over $31,000 to the sub $26,000 level in about six weeks – fragility that Melker attributes to a “long squeeze”.

But he remains confident that Bitcoin is not at all doomed to make a new low in the coming months. Defending his view on Yahoo Finance, the crypto trader and investor said:

I don’t think there’s reason to suspect we’ll go to new lows like we did after the FTC collapse unless we have some other massive black swan event. I don’t see that in cards.

Note that Jason Pizzino also recently said that BTC could soon be worth over $42,000.

Bitcoin has strong support at $25,000 level

Scott Melker announced $25,000 as a key level to watch in Bitcoin – as long it’s trading above that level, it’s still in a bull market, he added.

The crypto expert sticks the probability of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the Securities & Exchange Commission this year at 65%. He’s constructive on BTC also because the big players have been loading up on it for months.

If you look at the way Bitcoin has moved over the past four years, we’re in the midst of another four-year cycle in the exact same place that we were last time.

The total supply of Bitcoin is slated to halve in the second quarter of 2024 – an event that’s historically delivered a boost to its price.

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A JPMorgan analyst is convinced that the worst is behind us as far as the ongoing decline in the price of a Bitcoin is concerned.

Bitcoin is not the only one taking a hit

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou attributes recent weakness in the world’s largest cryptocurrency to a bunch of long positions that were liquidated as positive news, including the pending approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF continued to fade but added:

This unwinding of long positions appears to be at its end phase rather than its beginning. As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term.

Note that Bitcoin is not the only risk-on asset that has had a tough few weeks. China-related concerns and higher real yields in the U.S. have been hitting the tech space at large.

Nasdaq Composite is now down about 7.0% versus its recent high.

Why are investors staying on the sidelines?

Panigirtzoglou agrees that there has been positive news in the crypto market including PayPal Holdings introducing its own dollar-pegged stablecoin (read more) and the launch of “Base” by Coinbase Global Inc.

But investors are staying on the sidelines and waiting for regulatory clarity partly because the Securities & Exchange Commission has appealed the recent decision in Ripple’s favour, as per his research note today.

Appeal could result in a trial with outcome not expected until next year, inducing a new round of legal uncertainty for crypto and making them sensitive to any mid-process news.

On Friday, Fed Chair Powell also said at the Jackson Hole symposium that rates may go even higher from here and signalled no near-term intent of cutting rates which doesn’t bode well for the cryptocurrencies either.

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Bitcoin price has formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart.

It has also formed a bearish flag pattern on the four-hour chart.

Bitcoin price remained in a tight range this week as concerns about the industry continued. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 26,000, where it has been in the past few days. Similarly, the BTC/GBP was stuck at 20,522, which was much higher than last Friday’s low of 19,762.

Bitcoin flash crash 

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued plunging last week as concerns about the industry rose. As it dropped, Bitcoin moved below the important support at $28,300, where it failed to move below in July.

There are numerous reasons for the crash. Technically speaking, Bitcoin formed a double-top pattern, which is one of the most accurate bearish signs in the market. 

At the same time, analysts cite the performance in the derivatives market. Data compiled by CoinGlass showed that open interest worth over $2.5 billion was cleared in a few hours.

This perforance is notable since implied volatility in the options market had crashed to an all-time low earlier tis month. This volatility has now somewhat recovered following the recent plunged. 

As shown below, cumulative volume delta (CVD) has been in the green in the past few days. Weighted open interest has risen while aggregated liquidations have remained substantially low.

Looking ahead, the next likely catalyst for Bitcoin price will be the upcoming meeting at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. This is an annual meeting of central bank officials from around the world. Jerome Powell and other officials will talk about the current state of the economy and the potential actions.

Bitcoin price forecast 

The 4H chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. The chart shows that Bitcoin has moved below the 50-period and 25-period exponential moving averages (EMA).

Most importantly, Bitcoin price has formed a bearish flag pattern. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bearish sign. Therefore, there is a likelihood that Bitcoin price will have a bearish breakout in the coming days, with the next level to watch being at $25,000.

How to buy Bitcoin

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The U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit just ruled in favour of Grayscale in its long-running lawsuit against the Securities & Exchange Commission.

First U.S. Bitcoin ETF is now expected soon

SEC had blocked the asset manager’s effort to convert its flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to an exchange-traded fund last year.

But the ruling this morning paves the way for a Bitcoin ETF not just for Grayscale but also for others that have applied for one, including BlackRock and Fidelity. A Grayscale spokeswoman said today:

[Ruling] is a monumental step forward for investors, Bitcoin ecosystem, and those who have been advocating for Bitcoin exposure through added protections of ETF wrapper.

Bitcoin as well as Ethereum jumped more than 5.0% following the announcement on Tuesday.

Why does a Bitcoin ETF attract all the hype?

Note that a Spot Bitcoin ETF is a big deal as several experts are convinced that it would help boost institutional interest in the cryptocurrency and potentially unlock its next leg up.

Shares of Coinbase Global – the listed custodian partner in a bunch of applications for such an exchange-traded fund are also up nearly 15% at writing. According to Dave Weisberger – the Chie Executive of CoinRoutes:

It virtually guarantees they will approve BlackRock and Fidelity. Grayscale may need to refile, but they will almost certainty be approved as well.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust currently manages assets worth about $16 billion. The aforementioned lawsuit against the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission started in June of 2022.

The post Grayscale secures a big win against SEC in Bitcoin ETF case appeared first on CoinJournal.

Digital assets investment products saw outflows of $168 million last week, $146 million of which was for Bitcoin.
It’s the largest weekly outflows total since March 2023, according to a report by CoinShares.

CoinShares’ latest weekly report on digital asset investment flows shows that the market witnessed its largest funds outflows in nearly six months last week. The outflows come as sentiment across cryptocurrency dips amid recent sell-off.

Crypto sees $168 million in outflows

According to the report, outflows totaled $168 million over the week to mark the largest outflow from crypto products since March 2023 when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started its regulatory crackdown on major exchanges.

The outflows in the week ended August 25 saw the monthly outflows stand at $278 million as sentiment continued to trend negative amid “exceptionally low trading volume.” Indeed, CoinShares data shows the investment products market traded $1.3 billion last week, about 16% off the year’s average.

“This negative sentiment we believe is due to the increasing acceptance that a spot-based ETF for Bitcoin in the US is likely to take longer than many expect, with recent delays being announced by the SEC,” said James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares.

Largest weekly outflows from digital asset investment products since March 2023https://t.co/Rl00wvyLl9

— James Butterfill (@jbutterfill) August 29, 2023

Bitcoin continues to lead

The crypto market recently witnessed a sharp sell-off for Bitcoin, the benchmark cryptocurrency falling to lows of $25,350. The struggle to strengthen above $26k has illustrated the market jitters permeating the broader risk assets sector, with this shown in outflows from Bitcoin investment products.

In the altcoin market, Ethereum recorded outflows of $17 million, while XRP and Litecoin had minor inflows of $0.5 million and $0.44 million, respectively.

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Bitcoin price rose to highs of $28,142 on crypto exchange Bitstamp on Tuesday.
The gains came as the crypto market reacted to news of Grayscale’s win against the SEC.

Bitcoin price saw a huge spike in volatility on Tuesday afternoon as prices across the crypto market rose. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap jumped 7% to trade to highs of $28,142 at 1:05 pm ET, with the crypto market cap rising 6% to $1.15 trillion.

Bitcoin price chart

Elsewhere in the market, Ethereum traded to highs of $1,740, with its value up 5% in the past 24 hours. All the top 10 altcoins were in the green on the day at the time of writing, with BNB up 4%, XRP +3.8%, Cardano +4% and Dogecoin +6%.

Why is Bitcoin and crypto surging?

Bitcoin’s sharp price action to the new multi-week high came as the market reacted to news that Grayscale Investments had won in its lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

As CoinJournal reported earlier today, the DC Circuit court ruled that the SEC had wrongfully denied Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Bitcoin Trust fund (GBTC) to a spot Bitcoin ETF.

The court vacated the SEC’s order disapproving the application and granted the petition to have SEC review the proposal.

The post BREAKING: Bitcoin hits $28k after Grayscale win against SEC appeared first on CoinJournal.

Stacks (STX) has gained 18.43% today to trade at $0.5319 at press time.
Toncoin (TON) has gained 15.51% today to trade at $1.74 at press time
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) had jumped by 12.33% to trade at $216.57.

The cryptocurrency market has turned green today with a majority of the top cryptocurrencies by market cap registering significant price surges. Stacks (STX), Toncoin (TON), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) have come out as the top gainers as the global crypto market cap increased by 4.35% to hit $1.09 trillion. 

But what is making the crypto market surge? Well, let’s delve into the factors behind today’s crypto price surges.

Why is the crypto market rising today?

Today’s crypto market price surge coincides with Grayscale’s win against the US SEC in the Bitcoin ETF case.

The US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit on August 29 ruled in favour of Grayscale in its long-running lawsuit against the Securities & Exchange Commission.

The ruling was monumental for the crypto industry which has been agitating for SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETFs. The ruling not only paves the way for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF petition filed by Grayscale but also for the BTC ETF applications made by BlackRock and Fidelity.

After a long consolidation of around $26k, Bitcoin price momentarily surged above $28k minutes after the court ruling on August 29. Although the price of BTC has since slightly pulled back the bulls still seem to be squarely in control.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has also surged above $1,700 after staying below $1,700 for two straight weeks.

The post Stacks and Toncoin lead the bull cycle as global crypto market cap surge appeared first on CoinJournal.

As can be seen in the crypto heat map below, Bitcoin (which has retested levels under $26k) and Ethereum (prices have dipped under $1.7k) lead the 24 hour rot. Most top 20 coins are in the red. CoinGecko data also shows the global crypto market cap has dropped by 3.4% at the time of writing.

Bitcoin’s returns broken down by months

September has had the least number of positive-returning months at just two and is on a 6-year negative-returning streak. pic.twitter.com/4VqZkMubm3

— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) August 31, 2023

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s nearly 5% slip in the past 24 hours has the top crypto “right back where it started prior to the Grayscale news” that catalysed the broader crypto market. The upside that followed the court decision could now be more of a ““buy the rumour, sell the news” event,” the market intelligence provider noted.

Stock-to-flow model creator PlanB points to the fact that Bitcoin has to shake off “all tourists and weak hands before take-off.”

Sorry, we have to get rid of all tourists and weak hands before take-off. Almost there. pic.twitter.com/Lp6N4K9NhD

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 1, 2023

While the next few weeks will likely be as choppy as anything, analysts are forecasting a return to upside momentum in mid-October. This outlook bears in mind the potential for a SEC decision on the multiple ETF applications it delayed on Thursday.

Bitcoin was trading near $26,000 after testing lows of $25,683, with the price range of $25,600-$26,600 a key zone. Both bulls and bears are eyeing control here and a flip lower is likely if we have a “Sept-repeat”.

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