Biden Overtakes VP Harris as Likeliest Dem Nominee on Polymarket During President’s Press Conference (Update)

Joe Biden’s odds of being the Democratic nominee for president overtook those of his vice president, Kamala Harris following his first press conference in months, according to traders on crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket.

Traders at one point gave him a 51% shot of being the nominee, way up from 33% earlier in the day, according to a contract on Polymarket. The odds were recently back down to 45%.

Meanwhile, Harris’ probability of getting the nod dipped as low as 37% before rebounding to 42% at press time.

Biden’s chance of victory in November stands at 13%, less than Harris’ 15%, according to Polymarket.

Former President and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the White House. “Yes” shares in Polymarket’s contract for Trump recently traded at 61 cents, and will pay out $1 per share (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency pegged to the dollar) if he wins and zilch if not, meaning the market gives him 61% odds of victory.

Biden slurred his words several times during the press conference and mistakenly referred to Harris as “Vice President Trump,” but he also spoke in depth about foreign policy issues following a NATO summit and at one point his voice neared a yell as he talked about American children getting killed by guns. The president reiterated that he plans to stay in the race but acknowledged “it’s important that I allay fears” about his condition.

Concerns about his age and cognitive health have led to widespread calls among prominent Democrats and donors, including actor George Clooney, for the president to step aside, despite his insistence he is staying in.

Hundreds of millions of dollars are riding on the election’s outcome on Polymarket, which is enjoying a breakout year despite having to geofence U.S. users under a regulatory settlement. The platform’s bets are programmed into smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain.

UPDATE (July 12, 2024, 00:51 UTC): Rewrites throughout with details of press conference and price updates.