JPMorgan Sees Significant Capital From Existing Crypto Products Pouring Into New Spot Bitcoin ETFs

It’s unclear how much fresh capital the new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) will attract, but significant funds from other crypto products are expected to pour in, J.P. Morgan said in a Thursday research report.

The market reaction to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) reluctant approval of spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs has been relatively muted, with the focus now shifting to how much capital these new ETFs will pull in, the report said

“We are skeptical of the optimism shared by many market participants at the moment that a lot of fresh capital will enter the crypto space as a result of the spot bitcoin ETF approval,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

Still, the bank does see a significant rotation from existing crypto products into the newly created ETFs, so even if no new capital enters the cryptocurrency market, the new ETFs could still attract inflows of up to $36 billion.

The bank says about $3 billion could exit the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and migrate to the new spot ETFs as a result of investors taking profit after buying discounted GBTC shares in the secondary market in the last year. It also sees up to $20 billion from retail investors migrating from digital wallets held at crypto exchanges to the new ETFs.

Grayscale’s high fees could also trigger outflows, and unless it lowers its rates toward the level set by Blackrock (BLK) and other providers, “a lot more capital, perhaps an additional $5 billion-$10 billion could exit GBTC relatively quickly to migrate towards cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs,” the bank added.

Institutional investors that hold their crypto in fund format could shift from futures-based ETFs and GBTC to cheaper spot ETFs, especially if GBTC is slow to cut its fees, the report added.

Read more: Bitcoin ETF Approval Is Likely to Benefit Institutional Investors: Goldman Sachs