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Odds of 50 Basis Point Fed Rate Cut Next Week Jump to 45%
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Stephen Alpher
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A 25 basis point Fed rate cut was nearly fully priced in, but a WSJ article questioned that assumption
Odds are now nearly evenly split between a 25 basis point and 50 basis point move
Bitcoin appeared to move a bit higher on the news, but the gain was short-lived
Just 24 hours ago, it was thought to be nearly a done deal that the U.S. Federal Reserve could trim its benchmark fed funds rate by just 25 basis points when it meets next week, but the calculus has quickly changed.
After all, the employment picture, as suggested by the August jobs report last week remained robust. And inflation, as shown by this week’s CPI and PPI reports, continued to remain a bit stickier than hoped.
Wall Street Journal report Nick Timiraos – occasionally referred to as “Nikileaks” due to his excellent sources inside the Fed – Thursday afternoon, however, published an article suggesting the decision on the size of the rate cut was still up for debate.
“I think [it] is a close call,” Jon Faust, previously a senior advisor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, told Timiraos. “You can make a very good case for 50,” said Esther George, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve for more than a decade until last year. She noted that the Fed moved quickly to tighten policy above the “neutral” rate, so it might make sense for the central bank to move just as quickly to ease.
Shortly following the article, the chances of the Fed slashing 50 basis points next week – per CME FedWatch, which tracks positions in short-term interest rate markets – jumped to more than 40% from percentages in the high teens just a few days earlier. At press time, the odds of a 50 basis point cut had risen a bit further to 45%.
The news may also have been responsible for a quick turnaround in the U.S. stock market Thursday afternoon, which closed with decent gains after sporting losses earlier in the session. Bitcoin (BTC) too rose to about its highest in more than a week to $58,400 (it’s since slipped to $57,800).
All things being equal, easier monetary policy is generally assumed to be a good thing for risk assets, bitcoin included. But in bitcoin’s current bear phase, assumptions can quickly change. At least some analysts have said the Fed moving faster with rate cuts – to the extent that it signals the bank’s worry about a struggling economy – might send prices even lower.
